8th World Climate Change Congress

Biography

Biography: Taheri Tizro

Abstract

Changes in the future climate will alter the hydrological cycle and subsequently affect the quantity and quality of water resources. Understanding groundwater recharge is essential in managing groundwater resources. In this study, the effects of climate change on the future status of groundwater in Tuyserkan plain a sub basins of upper Karkhe River basin in Hamadan province, Iran are investigated. In recent years, Groundwater levels in the Tuyserkan plain have declined. Predictions of recharge in the Tuyserkan plain based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5) scenario from the Fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, have been produced. The Regional Climate Model (RegCM) model was validated for 5 years (2000 to 2004) and predicted for the 10-year period 2015 to 2025. The Tuyserkan plain aquifer system was modeled using the MODFLOW code in the GMS software using a finite difference model; various hydrological, hydrogeological, topographic and geological maps and well logs in the area were used. The groundwater model was calibrated for one year period with monthly stress periods (October 87 to September 88) and validated for another one year period (October 88 to September 89). Model sensitivity analysis results showed that specific discharge changes had more effect on the aquifer model compared to hydraulic conductivity and recharge. Finally, two scenarios were defined for the 10-year forecast period; the first scenario assumes the continuation of the current withdrawal process, but the second scenario considers a 20% reduction in agricultural wells as a result of increased irrigation efficiency. The results indicate that the water level drop trend will continue in the aquifer and the increase in irrigation efficiency will not have a significant effect on the water level drop trend.