Zahra Noorisameleh
University of Toronto at Scarborough, Ontario, Canada
Title: Impact of climate change on drought variables in dry and semi-arid cities (Iran: Tehran Province (
Biography
Biography: Zahra Noorisameleh
Abstract
Drought is one of the greatest threats to lives and resources. climate change has made the drought more complicated. Iran is one of the most vulnerable countries to droughts. This paper discusses the impact of climate change on the characteristics of precipitation and drought in the Iran capital. In this regard, the data of nine precipitation daily synoptic stations in Tehran have been used since the establishment of the station until 2018. First, the most important variables of drought in Tehran province were extracted with CPEI index. Second, variable values and severity of drought were predicted under RCPS scenarios (2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) by 2070. Third, drought intensity trend was calculated for stations. The results showed that the variables MAR (Average annual precipitation depth) and TWD (The total number of wet days) and TDY (The total number of annual dry days) were the most important rainfall variables determine the severity of drought in Tehran Province. The results showed that the average of Hurst exponent in the province is 0.72 that means long-term persistence in the precipitation time series in Tehran Province. The simulation of climate change in the future showed that the west of the province would be more vulnerable and the severity of drought will increase at stations where drought persistence and precipitation variability coefficient are higher. The process of reducing the wet days and increasing the dry days indicates that the rainfall would be concentrated in limited days and the conditions for flood events could further be enhanced.